MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0531
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0348 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/WRN KS...WRN OK...FAR ERN SECTIONS OF THE TX
   PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 165...
   
   VALID 142048Z - 142145Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 165 CONTINUES.
   
   THE SVR THREAT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WILL BE DISTRIBUTED
   WITHIN 3 SPATIAL REGIMES:
   
   1. DISCRETE/POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS FROM EDWARDS COUNTY KS
   SWD TO WOODWARD COUNTY OK WILL POSE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR STRONG
   TO VIOLENT...LONG-TRACK TORNADOES AS THEY TRACK NEWD/ENEWD AMIDST
   STRONG INSTABILITY. HILLSBORO/HAVILAND PROFILER DATA SUGGEST 0-1-KM
   SRH AROUND 350 M2/S2 WITH A LARGE AMOUNT OF STREAMWISE VORTICITY
   WITHIN THE LOWEST 0.5 KM AGL...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR
   SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.
   
   2. FARTHER SOUTH INTO SWRN OK AND FAR ERN PARTS OF THE TX
   PANHANDLE...THE DRYLINE HAS BECOME JUXTAPOSED WITH A
   NARROW...NNE-SSW-ORIENTED RIBBON OF MID-LEVEL ASCENT PER WATER VAPOR
   IMAGERY...SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTIVE INITIATION. CONVECTIVE
   PLUMES MAY EVOLVE INTO DISCRETE AND POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS
   DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS THEY ENTER OK WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
   AND STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ARE PRESENT.
   
   3. FARTHER NORTH INTO N-CNTRL KS...A QLCS SEGMENT AND EMBEDDED LEWP
   STRUCTURE WILL POSE A THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR
   TWO WHILE TRACKING ACROSS PARTS OF WASHINGTON COUNTY. THE GREATEST
   THREAT FOR TORNADOES WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOUND AT ITS
   INTERSECTION WITH A W-E-ORIENTED WARM FRONT.
   
   ..COHEN.. 04/14/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...
   
   LAT...LON   39819687 38409713 36879785 35349850 34469935 34540021
               35060050 36120037 37750027 39310043 39849993 39949913
               39969838 39819687