MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0533
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0454 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL KS INTO NW OK
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 165...
   
   VALID 142154Z - 142300Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 165 CONTINUES.
   
   A NEW WW WILL BE NEEDED PRIOR TO SCHEDULED 23Z EXPIRATION.
   
   THE DRY LINE REMAINS ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM GAGE...DODGE CITY
   INTO THE MCCOOK AREA...AND LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE
   EASTWARD ACCELERATION PRIOR TO THE 00-02Z TIME FRAME...WHEN THE EXIT
   REGION OF THE MAIN UPPER JET STREAK /AROUND 100 KT AT 500 MB/
   FINALLY BEGINS TO NOSE NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.  THIS
   WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR INTENSE NEW DISCRETE STORM
   DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES...MODERATELY LARGE
   CAPE AND STRONG SHEAR.  50+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW
   WILL CONTINUE TO AIDE THE PROPAGATION OF SUPERCELLS AWAY FROM THE
   INITIATING ZONE...ACROSS CENTRAL...AND PERHAPS PARTS OF
   EASTERN...KANSAS...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...WHERE CLOCKWISE
   CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL CONTINUE TO ENLARGE AND BECOME
   INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES.
   
   ..KERR.. 04/14/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...
   
   LAT...LON   39700030 39989993 40039814 39889738 38929688 38049693
               37269725 36239826 35749930 35639977 36059998 37129980
               38449991 39090010 39680038 39700030