MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0535
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0715 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NW AND N CNTRL OK INTO NE KS
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 170...
   
   VALID 150015Z - 150115Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 170 CONTINUES.
   
   LONG-LIVED...MODESTLY FAST MOVING SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
   ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING.
   
   SEVERAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CONTINUE MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AROUND 30
   KT...THROUGH THE OPEN WARM SECTOR OF THE DEEPENING CYCLONE CENTERED
   OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.  MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
   REMAINS WEAK/UNCERTAIN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
   CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS...AND INHIBITION FOR BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS
   MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME WITH SURFACE COOLING.  HOWEVER...BENEATH
   DIFLUENT AND AT LEAST WEAKLY DIVERGENT HIGH LEVEL FLOW...STORM-SCALE
   DYNAMICS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN ACTIVITY INTO AT LEAST THE
   02-04Z TIME FRAME.  CELLS APPEAR GENERALLY FOCUSED ALONG THE
   INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS /50-70 KT AT 850 MB/...WHERE
   ENLARGING CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL STILL SUPPORT
   THE RISK FOR STRONG TORNADOES.
   
   THE HIGHEST TORNADIC POTENTIAL MAY BE WITH CELLS DEVELOPING
   NORTHEASTWARD FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
   KANSAS...NEAR/SOUTH OF WICHITA...ASSOCIATED WITH INFLOW OF AT LEAST
   A BIT MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR THAN CELLS FARTHER NORTH.
   
   OTHERWISE...NW STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE BACK TO THE WEST
   ALONG THE DRY LINE ACROSS THE HIGHER PLAINS...WHICH HAS ACTUALLY
   RETREATED WESTWARD SOME THE PAST HOUR OR TWO.
   
   ..KERR.. 04/15/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...
   
   LAT...LON   36589878 37919790 39239719 39889605 39339580 36969720
               36159847 36199879 36589878