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Mesoscale Discussion 895 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0895
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0309 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN MO...SRN/ERN IA...EXTREME ERN
NEB...SMALL PART OF NWRN IL.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 252009Z - 252215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IS INCREASING WITH GROWING
COVERAGE OF ELEVATED TSTMS OVER MO/IA BORDER REGION. ACTIVITY
SHOULD SPREAD ENEWD THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WRN PORTIONS OF DISCUSSION
AREA...IN BROAD ZONE OF JUXTAPOSED LOW-LEVEL WAA AND INITIALLY
ELEVATED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS WITH MAIN CONCERN
BEING LARGE HAIL. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT STILL
WELL S OF REGION...OVER SERN KS AND S-CENTRAL MO...WITH
SECONDARY/DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THIS ACTIVITY
ACROSS NWRN MO AND SWRN IA. MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW FAVORABLE
BUOYANCY AND SHEAR WITHIN CONSTRAINTS OF CLOUD-BEARING/INFLOW LAYERS
ALOFT -- I.E. ELEVATED MUCAPE 500-1500 J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAGNITUDES IN 50-70 KT RANGE. GIVEN STG SFC HEATING AND FAVORABLE
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE ON BOTH SIDES OF THIS BOUNDARY...SFC WARM
FRONT MAY TRANSLATE/MIX NWD RAPIDLY DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS SUCH THAT
SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS MAY REACH SECONDARY BOUNDARY AND
BECOME ACCESSIBLE TO SOME CELLS ON SRN RIM OF THIS COMPLEX. IF THIS
OCCURS...DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH
MRGL/CONDITIONAL TORNADO THREAT AS DEPICTED IN 20Z DAY-1 OUTLOOK.
THAT SCENARIO IS VERY CONDITIONAL...HOWEVER...BULK OF CONVECTION
SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED WITH HAIL THREAT.
..EDWARDS/CARBIN.. 05/25/2012
ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...
LAT...LON 40469224 40079448 40229546 40599597 41459659 41939518
42189247 42189126 41709068 41049067 40589097 40469224
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