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Mesoscale Discussion 895
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0895
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0309 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN MO...SRN/ERN IA...EXTREME ERN
   NEB...SMALL PART OF NWRN IL.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 252009Z - 252215Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IS INCREASING WITH GROWING
   COVERAGE OF ELEVATED TSTMS OVER MO/IA BORDER REGION.  ACTIVITY
   SHOULD SPREAD ENEWD THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON.
   
   DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WRN PORTIONS OF DISCUSSION
   AREA...IN BROAD ZONE OF JUXTAPOSED LOW-LEVEL WAA AND INITIALLY
   ELEVATED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
   INCREASE IN COVERAGE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS WITH MAIN CONCERN
   BEING LARGE HAIL.  SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT STILL
   WELL S OF REGION...OVER SERN KS AND S-CENTRAL MO...WITH
   SECONDARY/DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THIS ACTIVITY
   ACROSS NWRN MO AND SWRN IA.  MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW FAVORABLE
   BUOYANCY AND SHEAR WITHIN CONSTRAINTS OF CLOUD-BEARING/INFLOW LAYERS
   ALOFT -- I.E. ELEVATED MUCAPE 500-1500 J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   MAGNITUDES IN 50-70 KT RANGE.  GIVEN STG SFC HEATING AND FAVORABLE
   BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE ON BOTH SIDES OF THIS BOUNDARY...SFC WARM
   FRONT MAY TRANSLATE/MIX NWD RAPIDLY DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS SUCH THAT
   SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS MAY REACH SECONDARY BOUNDARY AND
   BECOME ACCESSIBLE TO SOME CELLS ON SRN RIM OF THIS COMPLEX.  IF THIS
   OCCURS...DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL INCREASE...ALONG WITH
   MRGL/CONDITIONAL TORNADO THREAT AS DEPICTED IN 20Z DAY-1 OUTLOOK. 
   THAT SCENARIO IS VERY CONDITIONAL...HOWEVER...BULK OF CONVECTION
   SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED WITH HAIL THREAT.
   
   ..EDWARDS/CARBIN.. 05/25/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...
   
   LAT...LON   40469224 40079448 40229546 40599597 41459659 41939518
               42189247 42189126 41709068 41049067 40589097 40469224 
   
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