MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0896
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0357 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL KS...WRN OK...ERN PANHANDLE OF
   TX...BEAVER COUNTY IN PANHANDLE OF OK.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 252057Z - 252300Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...THREAT IS INCREASING FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP INVOF
   DRYLINE AND MOVE EWD INTO WARM SECTOR...WITH ACTIVITY OVER KS
   POTENTIALLY INTERACTING WITH WARM-FRONTAL ZONE.  VERY CONDITIONAL
   THREAT EXTENDS EWD ALONG WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL KS.  WITH HEIGHTS
   RISING ALOFT...CAP STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION STILL IS IN
   QUESTION...OTHERWISE STATED WW PROBABILITIES WOULD BE HIGHER.  TWO
   WWS MAY BE NEEDED -- TORNADO NEAR WARM FRONT AND SVR FARTHER S --
   SINCE PRINCIPAL TORNADO THREAT APPEARS FAIRLY TIGHTLY FOCUSED.  SVR
   GUSTS/HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTION THROUGHOUT
   THIS CORRIDOR.
   
   DISCUSSION...20Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED LOW OVER GUY/LBL
   AREA...WARM FRONT FROM THERE NEAR GCK-GBD-EWK-EMP-SZL-STL LINE. 
   DRYLINE INTERSECTED WARM FRONT OVER HODGEMAN COUNTY KS...AND
   EXTENDED JUST E OF DDC TO ERN BEAVER COUNTY OK TO HALL COUNTY TX. 
   DRYLINE SHOULD BE QUASISTATIONARY ON MESO-ALPHA SCALE FOR ANOTHER
   2-3 HOURS...WITH LOCALIZED WAVES/MOVEMENT...BEFORE SLGT WWD RETREAT
   OCCURS STARTING AROUND 00Z.  WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NWD
   ACROSS CENTRAL KS...WHILE LOWER PRESSURE MAY REMAIN SLIGHTLY SW OF
   TRIPLE POINT DUE TO CONTRIBUTION TO LOW PRESSURE FROM INTENSE
   HEATING BEHIND ADJOINING DRYLINE SEGMENT.  TRIPLE POINT MAY MIGRATE
   NWD ACROSS W-CENTRAL KS OVER I-70 CORRIDOR THROUGH EVENING.
   
   THERMODYNAMIC AND SHEAR PARAMETERS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE OVER WARM
   SECTOR...MAIN CONCERN BEING CAP STRENGTH AND TSTM COVERAGE. MODIFIED
   RAOBS AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STG HEATING AND MID-UPPER 60S F SFC
   DEW POINTS CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE MAINLY IN 2000-3500 J/KG RANGE. 
   MLCINH IS WEAKENING ALONG FRONT AND DRYLINE...THOUGH LESS-VIGOROUS
   BOUNDARY-FORCED LIFT AND BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING ALONG WARM-FRONT
   MAKES SFC-BASED FRONTAL INITIATION LESS PROBABLE THAN ALONG DRYLINE.
    EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES STRENGTHEN WITH NWD EXTENT...FROM 25-35
   KT RANGE OVER SERN TX PANHANDLE/SWRN OK TO 50-60 KT OVER TRIPLE
   POINT.  TORNADO POTENTIAL IS MAXIMIZED WITH ANY CONVECTION INVOF
   TRIPLE POINT AND NEARBY DRYLINE/WARM-FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEGMENTS. 
   RELATIVELY BACKED FLOW IN THIS REGION SUPPORTS ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
   HODOGRAPHS...WHICH SHOULD ENLARGE THROUGH EARLY EVENING TO REMOVE
   RELATIVE WEAKNESS OBSERVED AROUND 1-1.5 KM AGL IN HVL PROFILER
   SAMPLE.  EFFECTIVE SRH 250-400 J/KG IS LIKELY IN SMALL CORRIDOR NE-E
   OF TRIPLE POINT.  RELATIVELY HIGHER LFC AND WEAKER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
   ARE PRESENT AND SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS TX/OK THREAT AREA...LOWERING
   TORNADO PROBABILITIES THERE COMPARED TO NEAR WARM FRONT.
   
   ..EDWARDS/CARBIN.. 05/25/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...LUB...AMA...
   
   LAT...LON   34620068 37080046 38220027 38959922 39209858 39249797
               39019752 38589711 38059664 37439750 36799869 35489915
               34649928 34620068