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Mesoscale Discussion 1879 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1879
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 PM CDT TUE SEP 04 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND WRN WI...NERN IA...SERN MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 041833Z - 042030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP PRIOR BY 20-21Z WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EWD TOWARD THE MS
RIVER AND TRAILING SWWD INTO NWRN IA. STRONG HEATING PERSISTS AND CU
FIELDS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE MOD TO UPPER 80S F WILL ERODE ALL CIN...AND SFC
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE STORMS ALONG THE FRONT.
LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE QUITE STEEP...AND WILL SUPPORT RAPID STORM
DEVELOPMENT. WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
IS SUBSTANTIAL AND SHOULD SUPPORT LONG LIVED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS. AS SUCH...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. DAMAGING
WINDS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT AS STORMS PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COLD
DOWNDRAFTS AND BEGIN TO EXPAND AND FORWARD PROPAGATE LATER TODAY.
..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 09/04/2012
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...
LAT...LON 44678941 43668944 42698981 42459130 42739231 43699281
45009283 46029275 46549270 46879217 47049079 46868993
46358961 44678941
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