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Mesoscale Discussion 390 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0390
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0147 PM CDT SUN APR 07 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS / W-CNTRL MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 071847Z - 072045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLD LARGE HAIL/WIND THREAT MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTN OVER
SERN KS AND EVENTUALLY FARTHER E INTO W-CNTRL MO.
DISCUSSION...DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER SPEED MAX APPROACHING THE REGION
FROM THE SRN ROCKIES...THE LATEST SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE NRN
EXTENT OF A PLUME OF NWD ADVANCING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO S-CNTRL
KS EWD INTO W-CNTRL MO. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN FROM THE UPPER
40S/NEAR 50 DEG F TO THE UPPER 50S DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE
70S EARLY THIS AFTN. RECENTLY...A FEW TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM AN
ACCAS FIELD SPREADING EWD ACROSS S-CNTRL KS.
ACCOUNTING FOR THE EXPECTED SURFACE CONDITIONS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW MLCAPE GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE BY
LATE AFTERNOON WITHIN A DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED STORMS /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/. DESPITE CONTINUED
MOISTENING WITH A LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME...A NEBULOUS SIGNAL IN
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS CAST CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY...BUT THIS
DATA AT LEAST SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY
EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OR EVOLVE FROM THE ONGOING STORMS NEAR ICT. AS
SUCH...AN ISOLD LARGE HAIL/WIND THREAT IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTN...WITH CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUING TO BE MONITORED.
..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 04/07/2013
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 37219764 38029784 38629739 38769404 38199371 37649382
37359430 37219764
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