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Mesoscale Discussion 390
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0390
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0147 PM CDT SUN APR 07 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS / W-CNTRL MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 071847Z - 072045Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...AN ISOLD LARGE HAIL/WIND THREAT MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTN OVER
   SERN KS AND EVENTUALLY FARTHER E INTO W-CNTRL MO.
   
   DISCUSSION...DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER SPEED MAX APPROACHING THE REGION
   FROM THE SRN ROCKIES...THE LATEST SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE NRN
   EXTENT OF A PLUME OF NWD ADVANCING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO S-CNTRL
   KS EWD INTO W-CNTRL MO.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN FROM THE UPPER
   40S/NEAR 50 DEG F TO THE UPPER 50S DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS
   THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE
   70S EARLY THIS AFTN.  RECENTLY...A FEW TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM AN
   ACCAS FIELD SPREADING EWD ACROSS S-CNTRL KS. 
   
   ACCOUNTING FOR THE EXPECTED SURFACE CONDITIONS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   SHOW MLCAPE GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE BY
   LATE AFTERNOON WITHIN A DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF
   ORGANIZED STORMS /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/.  DESPITE CONTINUED
   MOISTENING WITH A LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME...A NEBULOUS SIGNAL IN
   CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS CAST CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY...BUT THIS
   DATA AT LEAST SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY
   EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OR EVOLVE FROM THE ONGOING STORMS NEAR ICT.  AS
   SUCH...AN ISOLD LARGE HAIL/WIND THREAT IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS
   AFTN...WITH CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUING TO BE MONITORED.
   
   ..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 04/07/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
   
   LAT...LON   37219764 38029784 38629739 38769404 38199371 37649382
               37359430 37219764 
   
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