MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0492
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1226 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SW MICHIGAN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 171726Z - 171830Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
   WHILE A MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUST AND SOME SMALL HAIL IS
   POSSIBLE...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AND A WW
   IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
   
   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING UPSTREAM ACROSS NRN IL
   WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT E/NE ACROSS SRN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO SW
   MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
   ELEVATED GIVEN COOL BOUNDARY LAYER WELL TO THE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT
   ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
   AREA. IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME WEAK
   INSTABILITY...AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUST MAY BE POSSIBLE IN
   STRONGER CELLS. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT /-10 TO -15 C AT 500 MB/ MAY
   ALSO SUPPORT SMALL HAIL PRODUCTION. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
   REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY LOW THAT A WW DOWNSTREAM OF SEVERE WATCH 113 IS
   NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..LEITMAN/KERR.. 04/17/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...
   
   LAT...LON   42468783 42828764 43128644 43118530 42858439 42438422
               42018421 41748438 41658488 41678581 41668725 41748759
               42468783