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Mesoscale Discussion 493
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0493
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0109 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN TX INTO
   SWRN...CENTRAL...NERN OK...AND SERN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 171809Z - 171945Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED THIS AFTERNOON FOR
   AREAS INCLUDING NORTHWEST TX INTO SWRN...CENTRAL TO NERN OK AND SERN
   KS.
   
   WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE TORNADO WATCH THREAT AREA...ELEVATED
   TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS W THROUGH NW OK AND SPREAD
   INTO SRN KS.  HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
   
   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN SURFACE MESOANALYSES INDICATED THE SURFACE
   FRONT ORIENTED FROM SW-NE ACROSS OK HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY...
   EXTENDING FROM INVOF KLTS TO 10 N KOKC TO 35 N KCQB TO 20 W CNU. 
   THE SRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDED SWD INTO NWRN TX...AND
   THEN NWWD AS A COLD FRONT INTO THE SRN TX PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH THE
   DRY LINE WAS LOCATED FARTHER W ACROSS WEST TX...BOUNDARY LAYER
   MODIFICATIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SUGGEST THE DRY LINE WILL MIX
   EWD WITH THE TRIPLE POINT EVENTUALLY BECOMING ESTABLISHED IN NWRN
   TX.
   
   STRONG SURFACE HEATING ALONG AND S OF THE FRONTS IN NWRN TX AND E OF
   THE DRY LINE ARE QUICKLY ERODING SURFACE INHIBITION FOR CONVECTIVE
   INITIATION LIKELY OCCURRING INVOF HASKELL/STONEWALL COUNTIES WHERE
   CU HAS BEEN GROWING DEEPER.  MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
   CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S WILL BREACH THE CAP AND SUPPORT
   TSTM INITIATION ACROSS NWRN TX SOON.  THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY
   THE 15Z RAP.  STRONG TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY AND STRENGTHENING
   WIND FIELDS/DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
   WITH ALL FACETS OF SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY...INCLUDING TORNADOES.
   
   FARTHER W/NW...TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP W OF THE SURFACE FRONT
   IN OK...WITH THIS ACTIVITY REMAINING ELEVATED.  THIS ACTIVITY IS
   BEING SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL WAA AND DEEP LAYER ASCENT WITHIN THE
   ENTRANCE REGION OF A SWLY MIDLEVEL JET.  WW ISSUANCE FOR THE AREAS W
   THROUGH NW OF THE FRONT IS UNCERTAIN.
   
   ..PETERS/KERR.. 04/17/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...
   AMA...
   
   LAT...LON   34150017 34800000 35949978 37189924 37809704 37969555
               37779513 36769498 35049655 33899800 33049938 32910019
               33140035 34150017 
   
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