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Mesoscale Discussion 501
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0501
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0523 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN THROUGH CENTRAL AND SWRN OK...PORTIONS NWRN TX
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 116...
   
   VALID 172223Z - 180000Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 116 CONTINUES.
   
   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORMS OVER SWRN OK WILL CONTINUE
   MOVING NEWD WITH A THREAT FOR TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH EARLY-MID EVENING. ADDITIONAL DISCRETE TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ALONG OR IN ADVANCE OF QUASI-STATIONARY
   SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS REMAINDER OF WW.
   
   DISCUSSION...A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM JUST W OF BVO
   TO NRN PORTIONS OF OKC METRO TO S OF CDS. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY FROM
   KTLX SHOWS THE BOUNDARY HAS BEGUN TO MOVE SWD OVER CENTRAL
   OK...POSSIBLY AS A RESULT OF OUTFLOW FROM POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION NW
   OF OKC. A SUPERCELL TSTM NEAR LAWTON OK WILL CONTINUE MOVG NEWD IN
   AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR LOW-LEVEL ROTATION/TORNADO DEVELOPMENT
   AS STRENGTHENING LOW-MID-LEVEL FLOW FURTHER ENHANCES 0-1 KM SRH
   VALUES THROUGH 00Z. THIS STORM WILL LIKELY REMAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE
   SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH 00Z AS IT MOVES NEAR/ALONG THE I-44
   CORRIDOR. OTHER SUPERCELL TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER FAR SWRN OK/NWRN TX
   IS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/DRYLINE TRIPLE POINT
   AND WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL
   AND DAMAGING WINDS IN A STRONGLY-SHEARED AND RELATIVELY LOW-LCL
   ENVIRONMENT.
   
   LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ADDITIONAL
   SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL OK DURING THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS...AND RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
   CONVECTIVE ECHOES. AN EWD EXTENSION OF CURRENT WW MAY BE NEEDED IF
   THIS SCENARIO BEGINS TO UNFOLD.
   
   TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...TSTMS MAY EXHIBIT MID-LEVEL
   ROTATION BUT WITH SURFACE OBS SHOWING SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING
   ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING
   WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
   
   ..BUNTING/THOMPSON.. 04/17/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...
   
   LAT...LON   36999631 37009466 35759503 33929681 33399853 33429998
               34609994 36209744 36999631 
   
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