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Mesoscale Discussion 503
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0503
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0630 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
   INCLUDING NORMAN AND S SIDES OF THE OKC METRO
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 116...
   
   VALID 172330Z - 180100Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 116 CONTINUES.
   
   SUMMARY...SUPERCELLS ARE ADVANCING INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND WILL
   LIKELY REACH NORMAN AND S SIDES OF THE OKC METRO WITHIN THE NEXT
   COUPLE OF HOURS.
   
   DISCUSSION...CURRENT EXTRAPOLATION TAKES THE LEAD SUPERCELL OVER
   NERN COMANCHE AND SERN CADDO COUNTIES INTO NORMAN AND S SIDES OF THE
   OKC METRO AREA AROUND OR AFTER 0100Z GIVEN 25-30 KT OF NEWD MOTION.
   LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS HAVE THUS FAR BEEN MODEST...AT BEST. THIS MAY
   BE ASSOCIATED WITH DELETERIOUS STORM-SCALE EFFECTS RELATED TO STORM
   SEEDING AND A STRONG VEER-BACK-VEER VERTICAL WIND PROFILE PER TLX
   VWP DATA AND PURCELL PROFILER DATA WITHIN THE 2-6-KM LAYER.
   REGARDLESS...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND DMGG WINDS WILL BE
   LIKELY AS INFLOW AIR REMAINS STRONGLY UNSTABLE AMIDST STRONG 0-6-KM
   SHEAR. TLX VWP DATA INDICATE 200-300 M2/S2 OF LOW-LEVEL SRH...AND
   SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST BEFORE THE STORM IS UNDERCUT BY
   THE LEADING EDGE OF SHALLOW COLD AIR OOZING SWD THROUGH THE OKC
   METRO. ADDITIONAL SUPERCELLS UPSTREAM WILL ADVANCE INTO THE AREA
   THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH SVR HAIL/WINDS LIKELY.
   
   ..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 04/17/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...
   
   LAT...LON   35269719 35019732 34649823 34479881 34699884 35109835
               35389795 35539755 35489732 35269719 
   
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