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Mesoscale Discussion 621 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0621
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0843 AM CDT FRI MAY 10 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE AND UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 101343Z - 101415Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLD LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL MAY AFFECT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
TX COASTAL PLAIN. A SEVERE WATCH DECISION WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
MADE BY 14Z OR SO.
DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A DIFFUSE CLUSTER OF EWD MOVING
STORMS FROM 20 MI E SAT TO 20 MI WSW UTS. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
EXTENDS FROM THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE LA MCS WWD TOWARDS THE STORM
OVER WILSON COUNTY. THE STORMS ALONG AND N OF THE BOUNDARY ARE
LIKELY ROOTED AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY-LAYER ON THE NERN PERIPHERY
OF AN UNCONVECTIVELY-MODIFIED EML PLUME OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
SAMPLED BY THE 12Z CRP RAOB. ADEQUATE MID LEVEL FLOW /40 KT AT KEWX
AND KHGX AT 6 KM AGL/ WILL ACT TO SUPPORT UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. AS
SUCH...A LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP/INCREASE AS THE STORMS MOVE
EWD AND IMPACT THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.
..SMITH/CARBIN.. 05/10/2013
ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...
LAT...LON 29229820 29739733 29779633 29319484 28869541 28529622
28709771 29229820
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