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Mesoscale Discussion 678
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0678
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0515 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NERN CO / WRN-SWRN NE / PORTIONS OF WRN KS
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 170...
   
   VALID 182215Z - 182315Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 170 CONTINUES.
   
   SUMMARY...A LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL PREDOMINATE OVER
   THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS FROM WRN NE S AND SEWD INTO PORTIONS OF WRN KS. 
   THE TORNADO THREAT WILL SEEMINGLY INCREASE AROUND 00Z AND
   THEREAFTER.
   
   DISCUSSION...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A DRYLINE FROM
   THE NE PANHANDLE AND ARCING SEWD TO A DRYLINE BULGE OVER SWRN KS
   NEAR DDC.  FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ALONG AND IN
   AREAS ADJACENTLY E OF THE DRYLINE OVER WRN KS INTO WRN NEB FEATURES
   DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S --CONTRIBUTING TO SIZABLE
   SURFACE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS 20-30 DEG F.  UNTIL THESE SPREADS AND
   LCL/S BEGIN TO DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR
   STRENGTHENS...LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD DMGG WINDS WILL BE
   THE MAIN THREATS.
   
   AS OF 2215Z...WDSS-II SHOWS THE MOST INTENSE SUPERCELLS OVER
   NESS/TREGO COUNTIES IN KS.  AS THIS SUPERCELL CLUSTER SLOWLY MOVES
   TO THE N...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY IMPACT THIS IMMEDIATE
   VICINITY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
   
   ..SMITH.. 05/18/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...CYS...
   
   LAT...LON   37109963 38370021 39280262 40240346 42660320 42240080
               40330221 39199944 37449915 37109963 
   
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