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Mesoscale Discussion 683
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0683
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0740 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND S-CNTRL KS
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 170...
   
   VALID 190040Z - 190145Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 170 CONTINUES.
   
   SUMMARY...THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE IS BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY
   ACROSS CNTRL KS.  UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING BOW
   APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING AND WILL MOVE ACROSS S-CNTRL KS DURING THE
   NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
   
   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS 3 MAIN STORMS OR CLUSTERS OF STORMS
   IN A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION OVER CNTRL KS AS OF 0040Z.  THESE
   STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INGEST RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AS THE
   STORMS CONTINUE MOVING TO THE NE AT 30 KT.  A LONG ESTABLISHED
   SUPERCELL OVER ELLIS COUNTY WILL MOVE INTO RUSSELL/LINCOLN/MITCHELL
   COUNTIES.  SURFACE CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THIS POTENTIALLY TORNADIC
   STORM ARE IN THE UPPER 70S WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS...WHICH HAVE LED
   TO AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS SAMPLED BY THE 00Z/19 TOP RAOB
   /4300 J/KG MLCAPE/.  STRONG MASS FLUX IS FOCUSED INTO THE REGION
   AHEAD OF THIS SUPERCELL IN N-CNTRL KS AND SERN NE.  AS THE LLJ
   CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING...CYCLING LOW LEVEL
   MESOCYCLONES WITH THIS STORM WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO POSE SOME
   TORNADO THREAT...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS.
   
   FARTHER S...LESS REFINED STORM STRUCTURE OVER
   EDWARDS/KIOWA/COMANCHE/CLARK COUNTIES IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME
   UPSCALE GROWTH TENDENCY.  AS SUCH...THESE MESSY MODE STRUCTURES WILL
   PROBABLY HAVE DIFFICULTY EVOLVING INTO QUASI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
   FROM HERE FORWARD.  NONETHELESS...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WIND
   PROFILE AT HVL PROFILER /40 KT AT 0.5 KM AGL/ WILL AID IN STORM
   ORGANIZATION.  AN EVENTUAL BOWING COMPLEX WITH EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS
   WILL FAVOR DMGG WINDS...BUT LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO ARE
   POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CORES.
   
   ..SMITH.. 05/19/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...
   
   LAT...LON   37029968 39179906 39409752 38899712 37439728 36919841
               37029968 
   
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