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Mesoscale Discussion 745 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0745
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0420 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...PART OF SRN/ERN OK INTO WEST CENTRAL AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 199...
VALID 210920Z - 211015Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 199
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW 199 INTO THE
EARLY MORNING...AS NEW STORMS DEVELOP FROM KIOWA COUNTY OK THROUGH
CENTRAL MCCLAIN/SRN CLEVELAND COUNTIES TO MCINTOSH COUNTY OK.
DISCUSSION...A BROAD WAA ZONE EXTENDING INTO SRN OK WITHIN THE NOSE
OF A 45-50 KT SSWLY LLJ COMBINED WITH A NWD INFLUX OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY SUGGESTS TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE FROM W-E ACROSS
WW 199. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR UP TO 50 KT SUPPORTS STORM
ORGANIZATION. THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 7.5-8 C/KM PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES WILL FAVOR A CONTINUED
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STRONGER STORMS TO PRODUCE PRIMARILY A HAIL
THREAT.
SINCE 0840Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED AN INCREASE IN TSTM
DEVELOPMENT FROM CENTRAL MCCLAIN COUNTY OK TO CENTRAL AND ERN KIOWA
COUNTY OK. THESE STORMS APPEAR TO BE FORMING ALONG A COLD FRONT
ADVANCING SWD INTO CENTRAL AND SWRN OK WHERE THE INFLOW OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS SUPPORTING THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT.
..PETERS.. 05/21/2013
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 34109762 34319816 34829893 35009855 35159766 35369712
35369628 35869562 35769372 35299379 34669450 34539455
34119526 34049714 34109762
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