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Mesoscale Discussion 782
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0782
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0104 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PANHANDLE/NWRN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 231804Z - 232000Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...TSTM INITIATION MAY OCCUR AS EARLY AS 19-20Z ALONG A
   WWD-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR AMA. VERY
   STEEP LAPSE RATES...LARGE BUOYANCY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
   WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS PRIMARILY PRODUCING VERY LARGE
   HAIL...ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES AND ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS.
   
   DISCUSSION...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM DECAYING MCS ALONG THE RED RIVER
   IN SERN OK/NERN TX CONTINUES TO MOVE WWD TO NEAR AMA SEWD ACROSS THE
   LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF NWRN TX. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED THE
   LOWER 90S SW OF THIS BOUNDARY. MODIFIED 12Z MAF RAOBS AND RECENT
   ACARS DATA INVOF LBB SUGGEST INHIBITION WILL BECOME MINIMAL SOON.
   WITH PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...CONVECTION-ALLOWING
   MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN
   19-21Z.
   
   ALTHOUGH MIXING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NWRN PERIPHERY OF THE RICH
   GULF MOISTURE PLUME...RESULTING IN LOWERING SURFACE DEW
   POINTS...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE AOA 2500 J/KG WILL
   PROMOTE RAPID SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ONCE INITIATION OCCURS. LARGE TO
   GIANT HAIL IS QUITE LIKELY WHERE THIS OCCURS. TORNADO POTENTIAL
   SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED ALONG AND NEAR THE COOL SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY WHERE LOW-LEVEL SRH WILL BE ENHANCED AND LCL HEIGHTS WILL
   BE LOWER.
   
   ..GRAMS/KERR.. 05/23/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
   
   LAT...LON   34460191 35340196 35520183 35550151 35420117 34630020
               33879952 33449946 33009969 32780023 32790116 33360195
               34460191 
   
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