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Mesoscale Discussion 820
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0820
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0323 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...PART OF NWRN KS INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS AND SOUTH
   CENTRAL NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 272023Z - 272130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS AND
   SOUTH CENTRAL NEB IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH THE STRONGER STORMS
   BECOMING CAPABLE OF POSING A TORNADO THREAT...AND PRODUCING VERY
   LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED
   DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH WFO/S ACROSS NWRN-NORTH CENTRAL
   KS/SOUTH CENTRAL NEB.

   DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
   REMAINS CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL KS /JUST S OF KHLC/...WITH ELY
   WINDS ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW HAVING INCREASED OVER NORTH
   CENTRAL KS.  THIS LATTER FACTOR IS FAVORING A STRENGTHENING OF LOW
   LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF THE WRN EXTENT OF A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY FROM THE EARLIER LOWER MO VALLEY MCS...WITH THE STRONGEST
   CONVERGENCE LOCATED NEAR AND N OF I-70 BETWEEN COLBY AND HAYS KS. 
   AN ENHANCED CU FIELD WAS LOCATED IN THIS AREA AND EXTENDED INTO
   SOUTH CENTRAL NEB...WHERE INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MOST
   PROBABLE.

   IN ADDITION TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AN INCREASE IN FORCING FOR
   ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO KS THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE EXIT
   REGION OF A 40-50 KT SWLY MIDLEVEL JET EMERGES NEWD INTO THE
   WRN/CENTRAL KS.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS ALREADY SUFFICIENT FOR
   SUPERCELLS...ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...WHILE THE INCREASED ELY SURFACE
   WINDS HAVE SUPPORTED AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE SRH
   ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA IS 200-300 M2 PER S2/ FAVORING A TORNADO
   POTENTIAL.

   ..PETERS/MEAD.. 05/27/2013


   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   39000088 39710101 40220014 40479924 40299788 39679748
               38949790 38919832 38829900 39059996 39000088 

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