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Mesoscale Discussion 821
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0821
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0334 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX PANHANDLE SWWD INTO SW TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 272034Z - 272130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE THIS
   AFTERNOON. WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A GRADUAL INCREASE
   IN CU ALONG AND JUST W OF THE DRYLINE FROM THE SE TX PANHANDLE SWWD
   INTO SW TX. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK RETURNS IN THE DRY AIR JUST E
   OF LBB IN CROSBY COUNTY. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE
   DRYLINE ARE IN THE MID 90S TO 100 AT CDS WHILE IN THE UPPER 80S AND
   LOW 90S EAST. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AHEAD OF THE
   DRYLINE. ALTHOUGH SOME BACKING OF WINDS HAS BEEN
   OBSERVED...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE IS WEAK OVERALL. DESPITE
   THIS LACK OF CONVERGENCE AND ABSENCE OF ANY NOTABLE LARGE SCALE
   FORCING...THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FAVOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION
   SOON. THE OVERALL LACK OF FORCING SHOULD ACT TO KEEP STORMS
   DISCRETE.

   AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT EXISTS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AS STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST ATOP A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. RUC-BASED
   SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AND
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 30 TO 40 KT. AS A RESULT...ROTATING SVR
   STORMS ARE LIKELY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND
   HAIL GIVEN THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT... STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...AND LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS.

   ..MOSIER/MEAD.. 05/27/2013


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   34290062 34620011 34499987 34129985 31650104 30030272
               30550372 32740218 34290062 

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