MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0854
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1133 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 291633Z - 291900Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TCU ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE...AND MAY
   EVENTUALLY ORGANIZE INTO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  TRENDS ARE BEING
   MONITORED FOR WW ISSUANCE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CU/TCU FIELD DEVELOPING
   OVER THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE.  THIS IS IN THE VICINITY OF A LEAD
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOWN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR AMA.  LATEST
   MESOANALYSIS DATA SUGGESTS THIS AREA HAS BECOME UNCAPPED WITH 3000
   J/KG OF MLCAPE.  CONSIDERABLE LOW/MID CLOUD COVER IS PRESENT TO THE
   EAST OF THE CU FIELD...WHICH IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
   EASTWARD EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. 
   NEVERTHELESS...THE PRESENCE OF VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES...HIGH CAPE VALUES...AND
   LARGE SCALE SUPPORT...SUGGEST THAT A WW WILL BE NEEDED IF CONVECTION
   CONTINUES TO GROW/ORGANIZE.

   ..HART/MEAD.. 05/29/2013


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   35050099 36410087 37339985 37379864 36769834 35369815
               34059852 33339934 33600075 35050099