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Mesoscale Discussion 904
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0904
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0105 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL ME

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 311805Z - 311900Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A MARGINAL
   SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
   THIS TIME BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS
   PARTS OF NRN AND CENTRAL MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS
   IS IN PLACE AND AMPLE HEATING HAS LEAD TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION
   /SBCAPE 500-1000 J PER KG/. HOWEVER...ONLY LOOSELY ORGANIZED STORM
   CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20-35 KT
   OVERSPREADING THE REGION. FAST STORM MOTION COULD LEAD TO SOME
   GUSTY/STRONG WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5
   DEG C COULD ALLOW FOR SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN STRONGER
   UPDRAFTS. WITHOUT STRONGER DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT AND GIVEN WEAK
   INSTABILITY/SHEAR...UPDRAFT STRENGTH/SUSTENANCE WILL BE LIMITED.
   THEREFORE...A WW IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT TRENDS WILL BE
   MONITORED.

   ..LEITMAN/HART.. 05/31/2013


   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

   LAT...LON   47096769 45926751 45286837 44846961 44967023 45677038
               46317023 46976987 47566928 47476834 47096769 

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