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Mesoscale Discussion 1013
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1013
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1156 AM CDT MON JUN 10 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN NC INTO MUCH OF VA AND MD/DE TO FAR
   SOUTHERN PA/NJ

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 101656Z - 101900Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH THE EARLY-MIDDLE PART OF THE AFTERNOON
   WITHIN A CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTHERN NC INTO MUCH OF VA AND EVENTUALLY
   ADJACENT PARTS OF MD/DE AND FAR SOUTHERN PA/NJ. WITH DAMAGING WINDS
   AND A TORNADO RISK BEING CONCERNS...PORTIONS OF THE REGION ARE
   LIKELY TO NEED A WATCH THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/SOME TSTMS ARE NOTED WITHIN A
   BROAD/CONFLUENT WARM SECTOR ESPECIALLY FROM THE NC PIEDMONT INTO
   SOUTHEAST VA...WITH OTHER DEVELOPMENT FARTHER WEST NEAR/WEST OF THE
   APPALACHIANS SPINE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEEPER FRONT. CLOUD
   COVER HAS LIKELY BEEN HINDERING THE DEGREE OF
   DESTABILIZATION/UPDRAFT VIGOR THUS FAR. HOWEVER...SOME THINNING OF
   CLOUD COVER IS NOTED OUTSIDE ONGOING SHOWERS/TSTMS...AND A GRADUAL
   INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS IS PROBABLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITHIN A
   VERY MOIST AIRMASS /LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/...WITH AID OF THE
   UPSTREAM APPROACHING/EASTWARD-MOVING OPENING UPPER LOW. AS
   UPDRAFTS/STORMS MATURE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A PROBABLE
   STRENGTHENING OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS
   AFTERNOON...A COMBINATION OF SEMI-DISCRETE/SMALLER SUPERCELLS WILL
   BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A PROBABLE EVOLUTION OF RELATIVELY
   FAST-MOVING LINEAR SEGMENTS WITH EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES/LEWP
   DEVELOPMENT. DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ASIDE FROM AN
   ISOLATED TORNADO RISK.

   ..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 06/10/2013


   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RAH...RNK...

   LAT...LON   36227664 36548003 37168049 39777733 39627500 36887587
               36227664 

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Page last modified: June 10, 2013
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