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Mesoscale Discussion 1018
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1018
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0338 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN NC/MUCH OF VA INTO MD/DE/NJ/PA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 293...

   VALID 102038Z - 102215Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 293 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH 293 CONTINUES UNTIL 02Z. THIS INCLUDES
   POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND A TORNADO OR TWO FROM FAR NORTHERN NC
   INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN VA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF MD/DE INTO SOUTHERN
   PA/NJ...AND PERHAPS EVEN ADDITIONAL PARTS OF PA CURRENTLY OUTSIDE OF
   WW 293 /MONITORING TRENDS/.

   DISCUSSION...A CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED TSTMS...WITH A FEW
   EARLIER INSTANCES OF TRANSIENT SMALL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...CONTINUE
   TO SHIFT EASTWARD/OFFSHORE ALONG COASTAL PORTIONS OF VA/MD INTO
   DE/NJ LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...FARTHER WEST...ADDITIONAL
   TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
   NORTH-CENTRAL NC/MUCH OF CENTRAL VA THROUGH EARLY EVENING COINCIDENT
   WITH A SECONDARY ZONE OF CONFLUENCE/FORCING FOR ASCENT JUST AHEAD OF
   AN UPPER DRY SLOT AS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. GIVEN THIS
   FORCING...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVING REACHED THE LOWER 80S F
   ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NC INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF VA/MD...SOME
   ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SECONDARY WAVE OF
   TSTMS. 

   ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT WINDS IN THE LOWEST FEW KM HAVE GRADUALLY
   STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
   FAVORABLE FOR BOTH SUSTAINED LINEAR SEGMENTS/SMALL BOWS CAPABLE OF
   WIND DAMAGE...AS WELL AS TRANSIENT/SMALL SUPERCELLS WITH A TORNADO
   RISK. OF NOTE...COINCIDENT WITH A MODEST DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE
   LOW ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY...A TRANSIENT SUPERCELL/SMALL BOW
   RISK MAY EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO ADDITIONAL PARTS OF PA LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING NEAR A WARM FRONT...ALTHOUGH DESTABILIZATION
   HAS REMAINED TEMPERED THUS FAR.

   ..GUYER.. 06/10/2013


   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...

   LAT...LON   39977487 38987492 36567618 36357679 36677860 36808035
               38177898 39587856 41087892 39977487 

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Page last modified: June 10, 2013
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