MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1501
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1248 PM CDT WED JUL 24 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL...FL PANHANDLE...SW GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 241748Z - 241915Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY UNORGANIZED...BUT A FEW
   STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS STORMS TRACK E/SE ACROSS SRN AL
   INTO SW GA AND ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WERE INCREASING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN
   WARM/MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE MAIN CLUSTER OF
   DEVELOPING STORMS WAS AHEAD OF AN E/SEWD ADVANCING MCV. THIS FEATURE
   MAY HELP TO PROVIDE SOME ORGANIZATION TO STORMS AS THEY TRACK E/SE
   TOWARD SW GA AND ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON.
   HOWEVER...LACK OF STRONGER UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND WEAK
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR /LESS THAN 20-25 KT/ WILL LIMIT OVERALL
   ORGANIZATION. WHILE SUB-PAR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE ANOTHER
   LIMITING FACTOR...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE INCREASING TO AROUND 7
   DEG C PER KM AND MAY STEEPEN FURTHER WITH CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING.
   THESE STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH PW VALUES NEAR
   2 INCHES AIDING IN WATER LOADING...A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD BE
   POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD ANY SMALL SCALE COLD POOLS
   DEVELOP TO AID IN BETTER ORGANIZATION...WIND THREAT WOULD INCREASE.
   MARGINAL CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED LOOSE ORGANIZATION SHOULD LIMIT
   OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL AND A WW IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

   ..LEITMAN/EDWARDS.. 07/24/2013


   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   31938813 32418747 32338589 32078494 31458426 30688382
               30028396 29588436 29398503 29558594 30098726 30748805
               31938813