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Mesoscale Discussion 2006
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2006
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0305 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN KS...NWRN MO...FAR S-CNTRL IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 162105Z - 162330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD FORM THIS EVENING ALONG A DRYLINE
   WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
   POTENTIALLY PRODUCING ALL SEVERE TYPES.

   DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A DRYLINE ARCING FROM NEAR
   SPW TO BETWEEN MHK/TOP TO NEAR ICT WITH A RELATIVELY ILL-DEFINED
   COLD FRONT FARTHER WEST ACROSS ERN NEB INTO NRN KS. IN THE
   NEAR-TERM...THE REGION WILL LIE IN THE WAKE OF A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE
   IMPULSE SHIFTING OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT SHOULD STRENGTHEN TOWARDS
   00Z AS MASS RESPONSE COMMENCES AHEAD OF A DIGGING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
   OVER THE ROCKIES. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS INCREASINGLY
   CONSISTENT WITH INDICATING CONVECTIVE QPF INITIATING INVOF NERN
   KS/NWRN MO BORDER NEAR 00Z. WITH A PLUME OF UPPER 50S SURFACE DEW
   POINTS EMANATING NWD FROM ERN OK/SERN KS/SWRN MO...THIS SCENARIO
   APPEARS REASONABLE. DESPITE WEAK BUOYANCY...STEEP LAPSE RATES AMIDST
   ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR A COUPLE OF
   SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO AS THE PRIMARY
   INITIAL HAZARDS.

   ..GRAMS/MEAD.. 11/16/2013


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   40879452 41059402 40969311 40719294 40339301 39749347
               39249404 38929466 38879521 38999577 39339591 39719573
               40419507 40879452 

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Page last modified: November 16, 2013
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