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Mesoscale Discussion 2007
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2007
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0753 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN AND N-CNTRL MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 560...

   VALID 170153Z - 170300Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 560
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...TSTM CLUSTERS DISPLAYING OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
   WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ENEWD INTO N-CNTRL MO. PRIMARY THREATS
   WILL REMAIN LARGE HAIL AND SVR WIND GUSTS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
   TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
   PRESENT.

   DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF TSTMS THAT INITIALLY FORMED ALONG A
   QUASI-STATIONARY DRYLINE HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SVR
   HAIL THUS FAR...WHILE DISPLAYING OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. AS
   TSTMS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ENEWD...AWAY FROM SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE SOURCE INVOF THE DRYLINE...TSTMS MAY UNDERGO A SLIGHT
   WEAKENING TREND /AS NOTED RECENTLY WITH TSTM CLUSTER MOVING ACROSS
   DEKALB COUNTY/. MARGINAL BUOYANCY WILL CONTINUE TO HINDER STORM
   INTENSIFICATION AS WELL...DESPITE SFC DEWPOINTS SLOWLY INCREASING
   INTO THE UPPER 50S F. HOWEVER...STRONG LOW- AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY
   CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ROTATION WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS...WITH
   MAINLY A THREAT FOR ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND
   GUSTS...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO.

   ..ROGERS.. 11/17/2013


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...EAX...

   LAT...LON   39579235 39209386 39209449 39429489 39739504 39959506
               40219469 40429379 40569335 40559260 40379230 39579235 

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Page last modified: November 17, 2013
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