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Mesoscale Discussion 2008
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2008
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1129 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL AR...S-CNTRL AND SERN MO...FAR SRN IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 170529Z - 170630Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM NWRN AR INTO SRN IL IS SLOWLY
   INTENSIFYING. VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITHIN A MOIST BOUNDARY
   LAYER MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG-SVR WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY
   A TORNADO. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST TSTMS ARE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING
   WITHIN A SW-NE CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM NWRN AR INTO S-CNTRL MO AND
   SRN IL...DEVELOPING WITHIN A WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME.
   WEAK/MARGINAL ROTATION AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE ALSO BEING
   OBSERVED WITHIN SOME OF THE STRONGEST QUASI-DISCRETE STORMS ACROSS
   NWRN AR AS OF 05Z. 

   SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION ACROSS
   THIS AREA GIVEN WEAK FOCUS FOR STORM SUSTENANCE...AS PRIMARY FORCING
   FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING AN AMPLIFYING WAVE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS
   REMAINS FOCUSED N OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...SFC OBS INDICATE HIGHER
   LOW-LEVEL THETA-E AIR /CHARACTERIZED BY LOW-MID 60S F DEWPOINTS/
   CONTINUES TO ADVECT NWD ACROSS THE REGION...SUFFICIENT FOR
   MAINTAINING PARCELS ROOTED NEAR THE SFC. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF
   LOW-LEVEL WINDS/SHEAR /E.G. 35-45 KT OF 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR PER LZK
   AND PAH VWP/...THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG-SVR WIND GUSTS...AND
   PERHAPS A TORNADO...MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS. CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

   ..ROGERS/THOMPSON.. 11/17/2013


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

   LAT...LON   36808946 35919058 35449164 35269282 35289329 35499348
               36059312 36859197 37489064 37569033 37908956 37918884
               37628849 37038924 36808946 

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Page last modified: November 17, 2013
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