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Mesoscale Discussion 2010
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2010
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0747 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/ERN MO...SERN IA...AND WRN/CENTRAL
   AND NRN IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 171347Z - 171515Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SWD FROM CENTRAL/ERN IA INTO
   NRN/CENTRAL MO BY MID-LATE MORNING WITH ACTIVITY THEN MOVING QUICKLY
   EWD INTO MUCH OF IL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  STORMS WILL BECOME
   ORGANIZED WITH THE POTENTIAL TO EVOLVE INTO LONG-LIVED DISCRETE TO
   SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.  THREATS FOR TORNADOES...HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS WITH THESE INITIAL STORMS SUGGEST A TORNADO WATCH MAY NEED TO
   BE ISSUED BY MID-LATE MORNING.

   DISCUSSION...MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CONVECTIVE
   CLOUDS ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDING FROM SWRN-NERN
   MO INTO SERN IA NEAR THE SURFACE LOW.  MEANWHILE...RADAR IMAGERY
   SHOWED A NARROW BAND OF REFLECTIVITY EXTENDING FROM SWRN IA INTO
   NWRN MO /INVOF KANSAS CITY MO/...WITH THIS LIKELY INDICATING THE
   PRESENCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND STRONG DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT
   ADVANCING EWD INTO THIS REGION.  STORMS...MAINLY ELEVATED...ARE
   ONGOING OVER CENTRAL/ERN IA ALONG AND N OF A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
   SWRN-NERN IA. 

   THE DEGREE OF FORCING ADVANCING EWD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA
   COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALREADY PRESENT
   OVER MO/IL /E.G. 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 50 KT/ IS EXPECTED TO
   SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT SWD FROM CENTRAL/ERN IA INTO NRN/CENTRAL MO
   AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES WITH THE COLD FRONT OVERTAKING
   THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

   ..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 11/17/2013


   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   38589247 39839289 41419214 42039044 42258924 42138769
               40058797 38328946 37929044 37869177 38589247 

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Page last modified: November 17, 2013
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