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Mesoscale Discussion 2013
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2013
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1049 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...IL...SERN WI...E-CNTRL MO

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 561...

   VALID 171649Z - 171815Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 561 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT AND POTENTIALLY LONG-TRACK TORNADOES
   APPEARS TO BE INCREASING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN IL.

   DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS PRE-FRONTAL STORMS HAVE FORMED FROM NEAR
   MILWAUKEE S/SWWD TOWARDS ST LOUIS. 16Z ILX RAOB WELL-SAMPLED THE
   AMBIENT WARM SECTOR...DEPICTING MODERATE BUOYANCY DESPITE A SLIGHT
   INVERSION NOTED NEAR 600 MB. LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS HAVE BECOME EVEN
   LARGER IN LATEST VWP DATA FROM ILX WITH A CLASSIC SICKLE-SHAPE AND
   0-1 KM SRH AROUND 500 M2/S2. POTENTIAL IS HIGH FOR SEVERAL
   SUPERCELLS AND GIVEN RAPID STORM MOTIONS...A FEW SHOULD BE
   LONG-TRACKED ACROSS THE HEART OF IL WITH SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.

   ..GRAMS.. 11/17/2013


   ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   38188974 38479119 40669042 42428943 43108797 42538744
               40868731 38878818 38188974 

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Page last modified: November 17, 2013
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