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Mesoscale Discussion 2014
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2014
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1132 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LOWER MI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 171732Z - 171930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES ALONG WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
   DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP N OF WW 562 WITHIN A NARROW CORRIDOR
   OF MARGINAL SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY

   DISCUSSION...17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 989 MB CYCLONE OVER
   E-CNTRL WI WITH A WARM FRONT ARCING ACROSS NRN LOWER MI.
   TEMPERATURES ALONG THE WEST COAST OF CNTRL LK MI HAVE WARMED INTO
   THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S...LIKELY YIELDING A THINLY BUOYANT
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WITH MLCAPE NEAR 500 J/KG. DESPITE THE MEAGER
   INSTABILITY...VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
   EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES AND LEWP/BOWING-STRUCTURES AS STRONGLY-FORCED
   CONVECTION CROSSES LK MI.

   ..GRAMS/MEAD.. 11/17/2013


   ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   45868482 45318312 44538316 44248332 44108368 44128650
               45128606 45708522 45868482 

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Page last modified: November 17, 2013
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