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Mesoscale Discussion 2017
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2017
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0105 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN IL...FAR SERN MO...FAR WRN KY

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 563...

   VALID 171905Z - 172000Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 563 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES WILL EXIST IN THE
   SHORT-TERM WITH CONVECTION APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER.

   DISCUSSION...AN ARC OF DISCRETE TO SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS HAS
   ADVANCED OFF THE INITIATING BOUNDARY /PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/ INTO A
   MODEST-WIDTH WARM SECTOR FEATURING MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG. INTENSE
   PRESSURE FALLS AROUND 6 MB PER 2 HOURS IN CNTRL IL ARE DRIVING AN
   ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE THAT ENCOURAGES ADDITIONAL NORTHWARD TRANSPORT
   OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE N OF THE OHIO RIVER -- DEWPOINTS AROUND
   64-67F -- SUPPORTING LOW LCL/S AMIDST THE MODERATE INSTABILITY.
   SUBSIDING BRANCHES OF WAVE-LIKE STRUCTURES EMBEDDED IN THE LOW-LEVEL
   STRATUS FIELD IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING THE CONVECTION ARE SUPPORTING
   AREAS OF PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO BOLSTER BUOYANCY WHILE ALSO REFLECTING
   THE PARTICULARLY INTENSE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN PLACE. PAH VWP DATA
   INDICATE A FAVORABLE HODOGRAPH FOR TORNADOGENESIS WITH 0-1-KM SRH
   AOA 500 M2/S2 AND AROUND 80 KT OF 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR LARGELY
   ORTHOGONAL TO THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY. SUSTAINED SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES WITH AT LEAST MODEST SPATIAL DISPLACEMENTS FROM OTHER
   STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES IN THE
   SHORT TERM AS THEY APPROACH THE OHIO RIVER.

   ..COHEN.. 11/17/2013


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   36739047 37278958 38508846 38008812 37148864 36598929
               36479012 36739047 

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Page last modified: November 17, 2013
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