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Mesoscale Discussion 2018
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2018
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0113 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN IL...IND...LOWER MI

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 561...562...564...

   VALID 171913Z - 172030Z

   CORRECTED FOR SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
   561...562...564...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERAL TORNADOES...SOME OF
   WHICH SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANT...WILL EVOLVE FROM IL INTO IND AND LOWER
   MI THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...THE NRN TWO-THIRDS OF AN EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE BAND HAS
   CONSOLIDATED INTO A QLCS FROM SRN LK MI INTO E-CNTRL IL. WITH AN
   IMPRESSIVELY LARGE SURFACE PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET NOTED ACROSS
   THE MID-MS VALLEY TO MIDWEST...TENDENCY FOR FAST-MOVING LINEAR
   ORGANIZATION SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS NRN IND AND LOWER MI. EMBEDDED
   MESOVORTICES WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF DAMAGING TORNADOES WHILE
   EXTENSIVE SWATHS OF STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN
   ATTENDANT TO THE QLCS AS AN 986 MB SURFACE CYCLONE OVER SERN WI
   CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.

   FARTHER S...TENDENCY FOR MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES APPEAR
   PROBABLE FOR CONVECTION EMANATING NEWD OUT OF SRN IL. ALTHOUGH
   DOWNSTREAM SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER...VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR NOTED IN KVWX VWP DATA WILL SUPPORT A CONSIDERABLE RISK OF
   SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES AS CONVECTION REMAINS COINCIDENT WITHIN A
   PLUME OF LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS.

   ..GRAMS.. 11/17/2013


   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND...PAH...LOT...
   ILX...

   LAT...LON   44528595 44528470 44118430 43138440 39638542 38508650
               38168746 38138787 38238832 38638834 40298780 42508673
               44528595 

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Page last modified: November 17, 2013
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