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Mesoscale Discussion 2025
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2025
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0516 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN MIDDLE TN / ERN KY / SWRN-WRN WV

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 172316Z - 180015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLD DMGG WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO WILL
   LIKELY MOVE INTO ERN KY...WRN PORTIONS OF WV AND POSSIBLY FARTHER E
   ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TN.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SEVERAL BROKEN BANDS OF STRONG TO
   SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OH VALLEY AND THE LOWER TN VALLEY. 
   ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS OVER THE WRN HALF OF TN INTO CNTRL KY IS WEAKLY
   UNSTABLE /REFERENCE 19Z BNA RAOB/...AIRMASS MODIFICATION FARTHER E
   OVER ERN KY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN QUITE LIMITED THROUGH THE EVENING
   AS SURFACE TEMPS/DEWPOINTS REMAIN NEAR 60 DEG F.  VERY STRONG WIND
   PROFILES SAMPLED BY OBSERVED RAOBS AND CURRENT 88D VWP DATA WILL
   SUPPORT DMGG WIND POTENTIAL WITH STRONGER STORMS AND A CONDITIONAL
   RISK FOR A TORNADO--PROVIDED A SUPERCELL MOVES INTO THE DISCUSSION
   AREA FROM THE W.  LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION PROJECTS THE LEADING STORM
   ACTIVITY NEAR THE I-65 CORRIDOR NEAR MAMMOTH CAVE WILL EXIT THE ERN
   BOUND OF TORNADO WATCH 565 BETWEEN 00Z-01Z.  AS A RESULT...AN
   ADDITIONAL WATCH WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED PRIOR TO 0030Z.

   ..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 11/17/2013


   ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...

   LAT...LON   36168652 38378383 39288142 38558092 37338229 36118536
               35958625 36168652 

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Page last modified: November 18, 2013
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