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Mesoscale Discussion 2026
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2026
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0631 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN INTO S-CNTRL KY / NRN MIDDLE AND WRN TN

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 563...565...

   VALID 180031Z - 180130Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 563...565...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL
   CONTINUE TO POSE MAINLY AN ISOLD DMGG WIND THREAT IN ADDITION TO
   PERHAPS A TORNADO.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR SHOWS A SW-NE ORIENTED LINE OF STORMS WITH
   EMBEDDED CELLULAR ELEMENTS EXHIBITING SOME WEAK SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURE/ROTATION AS INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFTS MOVE EWD INTO S-CNTRL KY
   AND NRN MIDDLE TN.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN PV ANOMALY
   MOVING RAPIDLY AWAY FROM THE DISCUSSION AREA AND NEWD TOWARDS THE
   CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION.  AS THIS OCCURS...A CORRESPONDING SLOW
   WEAKENING TREND IN THE LARGE-SCALE SETUP IS ANTICIPATED. 
   ADDITIONALLY...MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED BY THE 00Z/18
   BNA RAOB WILL CONTINUE TO HINDER UPDRAFT VIGOR.  DESPITE THESE
   CONCERNS...THE LOW-MID LEVEL WIND PROFILE REMAINS VERY STRONG /50-70
   KT H85-H7 FLOW/ AND WILL SUPPORT A LEAST SOME ISOLATED DMGG WIND
   POTENTIAL PRIMARILY WITH LEWPS/BOWING SEGMENTS/SUPERCELLS...AND
   PERHAPS THE THREAT FOR A TORNADO WITH THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL
   CIRCULATIONS.

   FARTHER S ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE EXISTING TORNADO WATCHES...THE
   POSSIBILITY FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE EWD INTO MIDDLE TN MAY YIELD AN
   ACCOMPANYING WIND DAMAGE THREAT.  IF THIS SCENARIO SEEMS LIKELY...A
   NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE CONSIDERED.

   ..SMITH.. 11/18/2013


   ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...MEG...

   LAT...LON   35628969 36678671 37768489 38728413 38568354 36618498
               36238529 35558651 35298908 35628969 

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Page last modified: November 18, 2013
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