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Mesoscale Discussion 2027
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2027
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0636 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN PA...WRN NY...FAR NRN WV

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 180036Z - 180130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...UPSTREAM QLCS WILL SPREAD EWD INTO WRN PA AND WRN NY AFTER
   02Z...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING DMGG WIND THREAT POSSIBLE. A SVR TSTM
   WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.

   DISCUSSION...QLCS MOVING ACROSS CNTRL OH IS PROGRESSING EWD AT
   APPROXIMATELY 50 KT...WITH NRN PORTIONS OF THE LINE REACHING WRN
   PORTIONS OF PA AROUND 02Z. BUOYANCY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION IS
   VERY MARGINAL WITH MINIMAL CAPE NOTED IN BOTH PIT AND BUF SOUNDINGS
   AT 00Z. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A
   VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A FAST-MOVING
   LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINE. THE MAGNITUDE OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
   LIKELY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ACCOMPANYING DMGG WIND
   THREAT...DESPITE POOR INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...REQUIRING ISSUANCE OF A WW ACROSS WRN PA INTO WRN NY.

   ..ROGERS/THOMPSON.. 11/18/2013


   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

   LAT...LON   43447807 43337721 41957770 39757905 39787942 39718074
               41518046 41988042 42507959 43317907 43447807 

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Page last modified: November 18, 2013
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