MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0109
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0329 AM CST MON FEB 17 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN IA INTO MUCH OF SRN/ERN MN...INCLUDING
   THE MINNEAPOLIS/ST. PAUL AREA

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 170929Z - 171200Z

   CORRECTED CONCERNING LINE FROM HEAVY RAINFALL TO HEAVY SNOW

   SUMMARY...A 1 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD WITH HEAVY SNOW RATES ON THE ORDER OF
   1 INCH PER HOUR IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...LIKELY IMPACTING
   ROAD CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.

   DISCUSSION...MODELS SUGGEST THAT FORCING AHEAD OF LARGER-SCALE UPPER
   TROUGHING SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...TOWARD THE
   UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WILL MAINTAIN THE NORTHEASTWARD/EASTWARD
   DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS NORTH
   CENTRAL IOWA AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN MINNESOTA THROUGH 12-15Z.  THIS IS
   WHERE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES REMAIN COLD AND SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW. 
   ALTHOUGH SNOW TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT
   MODEST...PRIMARILY DUE TO LIMITED SNOW DURATION...IT DOES APPEAR
   THAT LIFT WILL BECOME MAXIMIZED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER FOR A
   1-3 HOUR PERIOD IN MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA.  COINCIDING WITH
   THE NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF .5
   INCHES...SNOW RATES MAY AVERAGE ONE INCH PER HOUR...AND MAY IMPACT
   THE MINNEAPOLIS/ST. PAUL MN METRO AREA BY 12-14Z.

   ..KERR.. 02/17/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

   LAT...LON   44279592 45889492 46929260 45459233 43649217 43049371
               42859519 44279592