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Mesoscale Discussion 248 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0248
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 PM CDT WED APR 02 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN/WESTERN OK AND SOUTHEAST KS/FAR SOUTHWEST
MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 021919Z - 022115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...MONITORING DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS FOR AN ANTICIPATED
DEVELOPMENT/INCREASE IN SEVERE TSTMS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...INCLUDING PARTS OF NORTHERN/WESTERN OK AND SOUTHEAST KS.
MORE CERTAIN/IMMINENT SIGNS OF SURFACE-BASED DEEP CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL PROMPT A WATCH ISSUANCE /LIKELY BEFORE 21Z/ FOR
RISKS FOR LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...AS OF 19Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPES ROUGHLY W/SW TO
E/NE ACROSS NORTHERN OK...WITH PART OF THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTING
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OK/SOUTHEAST KS. AN
ADJACENT DRY LINE EXTENDS SOUTH/SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS FAR WESTERN OK.
OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...A CU FIELD HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF DEEPENING
NEAR THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS FAR NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OK
AND FAR SOUTHEAST KS.
ESPECIALLY WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE LOWER
80S F...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO
STEADILY ABATE...WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF
2000-3500 J/KG IN THE PRESENCE OF LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS. THE
SCENARIO OF WEAKENING INHIBITION IS WELL SUPPORTED BY MODIFICATIONS
TO A RECENT 18Z LAMONT OK OBSERVED SOUNDING.
WHILE LARGE-SCALE INFLUENCES ARE SUBTLE...ADDITIONAL
HEATING/SUFFICIENT MASS CONVERGENCE SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SURFACE-BASED TSTMS BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AIDED BY 40-55 KT SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL
WINDS AND AFOREMENTIONED AMPLE INSTABILITY...VEERING/STRENGTHENING
WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL. A TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST AS WELL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTHERN OK/EXTREME SOUTHERN KS IN VICINITY OF A SURFACE TRIPLE
POINT/WEAK FRONTAL WAVE. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE TOWARD
EARLY EVENING GIVEN AN EXPECTED STRENGTHENING/BACKING OF 1-2 KM AGL
WINDS.
..GUYER/HART.. 04/02/2014
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 35589930 36169915 36939823 37769599 37379416 36469454
36359615 35449846 35589930
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