MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0495
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0401 PM CDT WED APR 30 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SWRN VA...CENTRAL AND ERN WV...AND FAR SWRN PA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 302101Z - 302230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH TSTMS THAT
   DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM SWRN VA INTO CENTRAL WV AND FAR
   SWRN PA.

   DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A BOUNDARY
   EXTENDING SWD FROM SWRN PA THROUGH CENTRAL WV TO FAR SWRN VA...WITH
   LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NEAR THIS BOUNDARY /INVOF
   GILMER COUNTY WV AND SWD TO RUSSELL COUNTY VA/.  THIS CONVECTION IS
   FORMING WHERE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A NARROW BREAK IN
   CLOUDS FOR GREATER SURFACE HEATING.  ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
   IS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS...VERY WEAK INSTABILITY /MUCAPE
   100-200 J PER KG/ IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF ANY STRONGER
   LOW-TOPPED STORM DEVELOPMENT. STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST
   A STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

   ..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 04/30/2014


   ATTN...WFO...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX...

   LAT...LON   37068229 37928163 39298091 40298073 40458036 40018009
               39128025 38228080 37358120 36748165 36588228 36708250
               37068229