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Mesoscale Discussion 527 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0527
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0554 PM CDT THU MAY 08 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND NWRN IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 082254Z - 090100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
02Z. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE EXPECTED ISOLATED
NATURE OF THE THREAT.
DISCUSSION...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN AN AXIS OF
MLCAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...ALONG WITH
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. TSTMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH A NEWD-MOVING MID LEVEL
IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER ERN MO. WITH 35-40 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
PROMOTING STORM ORGANIZATION...THE STRONGER TSTMS WILL POSE AN
ISOLATED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS LARGE HAIL...WITH THE
SVR THREAT DIMINISHING WITH TIME LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE ONSET
OF DIURNAL COOLING. GIVEN THE EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SVR
THREAT...A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
..BUNTING/THOMPSON.. 05/08/2014
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...
LAT...LON 39788957 39549008 39919075 40689066 41209044 41749008
42148980 42318952 42408921 42378874 41658863 40578920
39788957
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