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Mesoscale Discussion 603 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0603
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0523 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN AL INTO WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL GA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 142223Z - 150000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...BRIEF/LIMITED TORNADO RISK MAY EXIST INTO THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN AL/WESTERN GA...WHILE ISOLATED SEVERE TSTM
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT TERM ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
GA IN AREAS INCLUDING THE I-75 CORRIDOR.
DISCUSSION...SOME OF THE TSTMS PARTICULARLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST AL
NEAR THE SOUTHWEST GA BORDER HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF TRANSIENT LOW-LEVEL
ROTATION OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS. THIS APPEARS COINCIDENT WITH A
CORRIDOR OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/WEAK WARM FRONT AND MOIST LOW-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE...AND WHERE DEEP-LAYER/LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS ADEQUATE FOR
UPDRAFT ROTATION. NON-CONVECTIVELY INFLUENCED WSR-88D VWP DATA
ACROSS THE REGION SUGGEST THAT 0-1 KM SRH MAY BE AS HIGH AS 100
M2/S2...WITH RELATIVELY STRONG DEEP LAYER VIA SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ABOVE 1 KM. IN CONCERT WITH THE WEAK WARM FRONTAL FEATURE AND
A PROGGED INCREASE OF 1-2 KM AGL SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS
EVENING...THE BRIEF TORNADO THREAT COULD GRADUALLY DEVELOP
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN AL AND
WESTERN GA THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
FARTHER EAST...BOUTS OF WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 00-01Z
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL GA AS A COLD POOL/OUTFLOW-INFLUENCED LINEAR BAND
OF CONVECTION SURGES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL GA
INTO A RELATIVELY WARM ENVIRONMENT.
..GUYER/EDWARDS.. 05/14/2014
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...
LAT...LON 32438534 33508523 33988394 33388264 32798260 32748349
32458383 31698390 31238472 31698558 32438534
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