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Mesoscale Discussion 645 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0645
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0554 PM CDT WED MAY 21 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN MD/EASTERN SHORES AND EASTERN VA/SOUTHERN
DE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 212254Z - 220030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE TSTM RISK INCLUDING DAMAGING
WINDS/SEVERE HAIL MAY EXIST THROUGH MID-EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN MD/EASTERN SHORES VICINITY AND PERHAPS EASTERN VA/SOUTHERN
DE. THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS UNCERTAIN...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...STRONG TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED/INCREASED SINCE 22Z ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN MD...HIGHLIGHTED BY A SEVERE-WARNED STORM IN
CHARLES COUNTY MD NEAR LA PLATA AS OF 2242Z. THESE STORMS IN
VICINITY OF THE MD EASTERN SHORES APPEAR TO BE OCCURRING NEAR/JUST
NORTH OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ANGLING WARM
FRONT. IN THIS CORRIDOR...A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE
OF AROUND 1000 J/KG IS LIKELY FEEDING THESE STORMS FROM THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST. POTENTIALLY AIDED BY A CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE /PER LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY/...IT SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE THAT ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
/THROUGH 01Z-02Z TIME FRAME/. VERTICAL SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KT WILL
SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...ALTHOUGH LINE SEGMENTS/SMALL
BOWS MAY BE A MORE PREVALENT CONVECTIVE MODE. DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE
HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
..GUYER/MEAD.. 05/21/2014
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...
LAT...LON 38267783 38717743 38527609 38417513 37697513 37337554
37737645 38267783
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