MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0673
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0521 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL AND NERN NM...SERN CO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 232221Z - 232315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR STRONG-SVR WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
   HAIL WILL EXIST FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HRS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN NM INTO
   SERN CO. THE MAGNITUDE AND SPATIAL COVERAGE OF THE THREAT APPEAR
   INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A WW.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN A
   BROADLY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE
   SWRN CONUS CLOSED LOW. THE ABUNDANCE OF HIGH-LEVEL CONVECTIVELY
   INDUCED CIRRUS AND MEAGER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING A
   MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE
   VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...20-30 KT OF SLY MIDLEVEL FLOW IS
   SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ORGANIZATION OF THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS BEING FURTHER ENHANCED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF
   ERN NM AND SERN CO WITH WIDESPREAD SELY WINDS OBSERVED. PRIMARY
   THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG-SVR WIND
   GUSTS...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOR WW ISSUANCE.

   ..ROGERS/GUYER.. 05/23/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   37270323 35930362 35210445 35170520 35280574 35810605
               36320606 37290573 38280529 38600509 38730465 38380368
               38090323 37270323