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Mesoscale Discussion 792 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0792
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1207 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO N CNTRL/NERN NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 206...
VALID 031707Z - 031830Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 206
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES WITH ONE OR MORE GROWING AND
CONSOLIDATING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON.
SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS OCCURS...WITH THE RISK FOR SEVERE
HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES INCREASING THROUGH 20-22Z. AT
LEAST PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH/EAST ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR A TORNADO WATCH.
DISCUSSION...INTENSE CONVECTION NOW EAST OF VALENTINE HAS TAKEN A
SOUTHEASTWARD TURN DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO. THIS LIKELY IS
FOCUSED WITHIN A ZONE OF ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION /ROUGHLY DELINEATED
BY THE 700 MB THERMAL GRADIENT/ WHICH MAY SUPPORT SOUTHEASTWARD
DEVELOPMENT INTO AREA NORTH THROUGH WEST OF NORFOLK THROUGH 19-21Z.
AT THE SAME TIME...WITH CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND MIXING
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...STRENGTHENING LOWER LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF A 30 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB
JET SEEMS LIKELY TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL INTENSE STORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NEAR/SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF
VALENTINE.
IN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND MODERATELY
LARGE BOUNDARY-LAYER BASED CAPE...SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY WITH
ACTIVITY GRADUALLY CONGEALING/CONSOLIDATING WITH DOWNSTREAM ACTIVITY
INTO A GROWING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. THE RISK FOR TORNADOES IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TOWARD 20-22Z...IN ADDITION TO A CONTINUING
RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL...AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..KERR.. 06/03/2014
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 43699945 43389772 43059687 42159680 41599708 41399831
41569909 42190064 42750113 43450046 43699945
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