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Mesoscale Discussion 795 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0795
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0151 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT...NERN WY...WRN SD...SWRN ND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 031851Z - 032045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE SVR-TSTM RISK MAY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...POTENTIALLY WARRANTING WW ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ARE STUNTING APPRECIABLE DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...MODEST DIURNAL HEATING HAS BEEN
SUFFICIENT FOR A CORRIDOR OF 500-1000-J/KG MLCAPE TO EXTEND NWWD
INTO THE AREA. THIS IS BEING AIDED BY THE RETURN OF MODERATELY RICH
MOISTURE FOR THESE ELEVATIONS -- I.E. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE
50S. INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ATOP THE UPSLOPE FLOW
REGIME IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING CONVECTION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE PRESENCE OF 30-40-KT MID-LEVEL SWLYS AND
A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL FOSTER
SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION
INCLUDING POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN FAR SERN MT AND
VICINITY WHERE LOWER LCLS EXIST AMIDST BACKED SFC FLOW.
..COHEN/CARBIN.. 06/03/2014
ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...
LAT...LON 46750451 46140274 45370268 44520344 44110528 45260671
46570655 46750451
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