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Mesoscale Discussion 804 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0804
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0805 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...NE MO INTO W-CENTRAL IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 040105Z - 040230Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A STRONG WIND/MARGINAL HAIL THREAT MAY CONTINUE TO THE
E/SE OF TORNADO WATCH 210. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT QUICKLY
DIMINISHES TOWARD CENTRAL IL...BUT A SMALL WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS
THE MCD AREA.
DISCUSSION...00Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER ACROSS
N-CNTRL MO/S-CNTRL IA. THIS CLUSTER SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK SEWD
ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT IN THE VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT. OOZ
ILX RAOB SHOWS STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT MIDLEVEL WARMING
ABOVE 700 MB...WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO WEAKENING/MORE
UNORGANIZED STORMS WITH SEWD EXTENT. RECENT MESH AND CAPPI DATA
SUPPORT THIS ASSUMPTION WITH DOWNWARD TRENDS WITH EWD EXTENT.
HOWEVER...A SMALL ZONE OF ADEQUATE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES COINCIDES
WITH GREATER INSTABILITY AXIS NEAR THE MS RIVER AND SEVERE STORMS
MAY CONTINUE FOR A SHORT PERIOD DOWNSTREAM OF WW 210. STRONG WINDS
AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS
THAT PERSIST INTO THE MCD AREA. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.
WHILE THE NEAR-TERM SEVERE THREAT MAY BE LIMITED...THE THREAT OF
STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS MAY INCREASE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AFTER 06Z.
..LEITMAN/HART.. 06/04/2014
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...
LAT...LON 40539227 40539156 40249077 39769009 39318995 39048997
38849023 38779057 38839107 38949147 39179190 39409222
39559243 39769246 40169244 40539227
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