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Mesoscale Discussion 1127 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1127
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TX PANHANDLE INTO TX SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHWEST
TX...AND WRN TO PARTS OF CENTRAL OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 349...350...
VALID 230723Z - 230900Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
349...350...CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS...NORTHWEST TX AND SOUTHWEST OK
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS /THROUGH 08-10Z/. A NEW WW SOUTH OF WW
350 DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME...AS RELATIVE OVERNIGHT
COOLING OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL FURTHER INCREASE INHIBITION PER
MODIFIED 00Z MAF SOUNDING.
DISCUSSION...EVOLUTION OF EARLY OVERNIGHT IR SATELLITE AND MOSAIC
RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS SHOWED A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS
ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING
SSEWD...AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TX SOUTH PLAINS...NORTHWEST
TX...AND SWRN/PORTION OF CENTRAL OK. TRENDS IN 7 KM AND 9 KM CAPPI
AND GOES-R OVERSHOOTING TOP PRODUCT INDICATED THE MORE PERSISTENT
UPDRAFTS SINCE AT LEAST 0530Z HAVE BEEN FROM THE SRN TX PANHANDLE
INTO WRN OK...WITH FORWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY AT 35-40 KT
TOWARD THE SSE. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 08-09Z TO
PERHAPS 10Z...GIVEN AN INFLUX OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG A 30-35
KT SSWLY LLJ IMPINGING ON THE LEADING EDGE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...
SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT SWD INTO WW 350.
FARTHER ENE...THE LINE OF STORMS MOVING INTO THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO
WAS TRACKING SEWD AT 30 KT...THOUGH RADAR IMAGERY HAD INDICATED AN
INCREASE IN TSTM INTENSITY IN DEWEY/BLAINE COUNTIES OK BETWEEN
0540-06Z AT THE INTERSECTION OF TWO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SWRN AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL OK.
..PETERS.. 06/23/2014
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...
LAT...LON 33630303 33870233 34440170 34590116 34580063 34749993
35199973 35329902 35509850 35879832 36159806 36339772
35989752 35409773 34469817 33539797 33389896 32969901
32970117 32960301 33630303
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