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Mesoscale Discussion 1211 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1211
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0908 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN NEB INTO SWRN IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 372...
VALID 301408Z - 301515Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 372
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...PARTS OF WW 372 IN ERN NEB INTO SWRN IA MAY NEED TO BE
UPGRADED TO A TORNADO WATCH. CURRENT THINKING AT SPC INDICATED
CONCERN FOR A POTENTIAL INCREASE IN THE TORNADO THREAT THROUGH THE
MORNING ACROSS THIS DISCUSSION AREA.
DISCUSSION...MID-MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS PER TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS
AND VISIBLE SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ARCING ACROSS FAR SRN IA /FROM SRN WASHINGTON COUNTY TO LUCAS
COUNTY...AND THEN NWWD TO POTTAWATTAMIE COUNTY NEAR THE STORM THAT
PRODUCED GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AT 1306Z/. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED NEAR BBW WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD TO
NEAR OMA. THESE TWO BOUNDARIES ARE LOCATED WITHIN A W-E CORRIDOR OF
VERY RICH MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S/...VERY
STRONG INSTABILITY AND A VORTICITY RICH ENVIRONMENT. THE STORM IN
NERN NEB...NEAR 30 WSW SUX AT 1350Z...APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ALONG A
WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR OFK NEWD INTO NWRN IA...AND IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A RELATIVELY COOLER...MORE STABLE AIR MASS.
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL/SRN
NEB AND NRN KS WILL SPREAD EWD. ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE COMBINED
WITH A ZONE OF PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA WITHIN THE NOSE OF A 30 KT
SSWLY LLJ SUGGESTS STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER ERN NEB INTO
WRN IA. AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS COMBINED WITH SFC-1 KM SHEAR OF 30
KT AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 260 M2/S2 PER OMA WSR-88D SUGGESTS STORMS
FORMING AND/OR INTERACTING WITH THE WARM FRONT AND IA OUTFLOW WILL
HAVE A TORNADO POTENTIAL. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A
THREAT AS WELL.
..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 06/30/2014
ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...
LAT...LON 41999709 41949642 41739558 41439421 40989399 40849499
40969618 41009686 41499728 41999709
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