ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 010345 
SPC MCD 010345 
TXZ000-OKZ000-010945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0001
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0945 PM CST WED DEC 31 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 

VALID 010345Z - 010945Z

SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH
CENTRAL TX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  FREEZING RAIN RATES WILL RANGE
FROM .05 TO .10 INCH PER HOUR.

DISCUSSION...WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY
WILL SHIFT EAST INTO AZ DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  IN RESPONSE TO
THIS FEATURE...LOW-LEVEL JET IS BEGINNING TO RESPOND OVER SOUTH TX. 
LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE/VWP DATA SUGGESTS 30-40KT LLJ WILL
FOCUS WARM ADVECTION/ASCENT ALONG A SW-NE CORRIDOR FROM THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU...NEWD TOWARD THE METROPLEX.  PRIMARY ICING CONDITIONS WILL
BE WEST OF I-35 WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS ARE WELL BELOW
FREEZING.  OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS A NARROW BAND OF
CONVECTION...ROUGHLY 30 MI WIDE...HAS ELONGATED ITSELF FROM PECOS
COUNTY...THROUGH NRN TOM GREEN COUNTY...INTO EASTLAND COUNTY.  WHILE
MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS FREEZING RAIN...SLEET IS OCCURRING
ACROSS THE NWRN FRINGE...ESPECIALLY AROUND ABI WHERE SFC
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 20F AND SUB-FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER IS DEEPER.
LATEST THINKING IS SIGNIFICANT ICING SHOULD BE NOTED ALONG THIS
CORRIDOR WITH PRECIPITATION/ICING EVENTUALLY SPREADING/DEVELOPING
NORTH OF THE METROPLEX.  LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD
BE MORE COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF THE HILL COUNTRY.

..DARROW.. 01/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   30960246 32010075 32879975 33779783 33709670 32619726
            32019790 31269947 30260184 30960246 

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