ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 032247 
SPC MCD 032247 
ALZ000-032345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0014
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0447 PM CST SAT JAN 03 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN AND CENTRAL AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 032247Z - 032345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR A TORNADO AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED AND A WATCH IS POSSIBLE BY 00Z.

DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OVER MONROE COUNTY AL HAS
EXHIBITED PERSISTENT ROTATION AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST AT NEARLY 50
MPH.  LATEST MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS AN EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC
ZONE...REINFORCED BY PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL AL...THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WFO BHM COUNTY WARNING AREA FROM
DALLAS TO MONTGOMERY AND RUSSELL COUNTIES. AS THE MONROE COUNTY
STORM CONTINUES NORTHEAST...IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT
FOR PERSISTENT LOW-MID LEVEL ROTATION AND POSE A TORNADO RISK AS 
EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF AROUND 200 M2/S2 EXIST DOWNSTREAM. AS THIS
CELL EVENTUALLY MOVES ACROSS AND INTO MORE STABLE AIR NORTH OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE...THE LOW-LEVEL ROTATION THREAT WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH.

ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WW BY 00Z.

..BUNTING/WEISS.. 01/03/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON   31748618 31408649 31358721 31498758 31988756 32288743
            32538706 32798689 33028671 33108656 33088629 33018600
            32878581 32578560 32178590 31748618 

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