ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 041348 
SPC MCD 041348 
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-041515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0021
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 AM CST SUN JAN 04 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE AL...SW GA...FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 041348Z - 041515Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT AND A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SW GA...FAR SE AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THE MAGNITUDE OF ANY SEVERE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE AL
WITH A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE ERN FL
PANHANDLE NNEWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN HALF OF GA. SFC DEWPOINTS
ALONG THIS CORRIDOR ARE IN THE 65 TO 70 F RANGE WITH A NEARLY
CONTINUOUS LINE OF STORMS ONGOING ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE MOIST
CORRIDOR. THIS SQUALL-LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SW GA AND
INTO THE ERN FL PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHERE SFC WINDS
ARE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY VEERING
WINDS WITH HEIGHT MAY RESULT IN ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR A BRIEF
TORNADO WITH ROTATING CELL ELEMENTS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. IN
ADDITION...THE WSR-88D VWP AT TALLAHASSEE SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 50
KT WITH 30 TO 35 KT OF FLOW JUST OFF THE SFC. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH LINE SEGMENTS THAT CAN ACCELERATE
A BIT FASTER THAN THE LINE ITSELF AND DEVELOP BOWING STRUCTURE.

..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 01/04/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   29808395 29468460 29488515 29748563 30128569 30808543
            32558421 31918285 29808395 

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