ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 041839 
SPC MCD 041839 
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-042015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0024
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 PM CST SUN JAN 04 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...N FL TO SRN NC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 3...

VALID 041839Z - 042015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 3 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...LOOSELY-ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE FROM CNTRL SC TO THE ERN FL
PANHANDLE SHOULD CONTINUE EWD WITH RISKS OF A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO
AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. WITH THE
OVERALL RISK ON THE MARGINAL SIDE...DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE TO THE N
IS AROUND 30 PERCENT.

DISCUSSION...ORGANIZED STRUCTURES HAVE LARGELY WEAKENED...CG
LIGHTNING HAS DECREASED AND IR CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED WITH THE
SOUTHEAST QLCS. BUT TRANSIENT MESOVORTICES HAVE OCCASIONALLY BEEN
EVIDENT IN PARTS OF E-CNTRL TO S-CNTRL GA...SUPPORTED BY 30-35 KT
0-1 KM SHEAR PER CAE/VAX VWP DATA. CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE
REMAINS SUGGESTIVE OF THE OVERALL WEAKENING TREND
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY THE PAST FEW HRRR RUNS. BUT WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVING WARMED INTO THE MIDDLE 70S TO NEAR 80 AHEAD OF
THE LINE...STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT STRONG
CONVECTIVE GUSTS CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS PRIMARILY
ACROSS SERN GA INTO SRN SC.

FARTHER N NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER...LOW-LEVEL SWLYS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE WEAK BUOYANCY AND POOR
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF SUPPORT FROM HI-RES
GUIDANCE...THIS STRENGTHENING OF SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
SUPERCELL TO FORM WITH A SHORT-DURATION TORNADO/WIND RISK.

..GRAMS/HART.. 01/04/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   31508105 29778290 29808388 30668362 31348277 31888228
            32838183 33718114 34778015 35287945 35517878 35487814
            35247761 34917737 34637742 34157788 33817863 33267932
            31508105 

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